Nassim Nicholas Taleb tells us that we humans constantly underestimate the likelihood of rare events.
He also reminds us that we cannot conclude an event is impossible just because we have not yet observed it. Taleb calls this the "black swan" problem.
The "Turtle Traders" were a group of traders hired by legendary trader Richard Dennis to prove that anyone could be taught the discipline of trading, particularly trend-following.
One of Dennis's key trend-following premises is that trends tend to persist longer than anyone expects.
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